The proof is in the hard data that the Manhattan real estate market is stabilizing. Although there has been a 5.6% increase in inventory compared to 2009, 4th Quarter, sales still remain constant. There were 2,295 recorded sales in the 4th Quarter 2010. The median sales price of a Manhattan apartment, condo and co-op, has increased to $845,000 from $810,000 in 2009 Q4, but this is an actual decrease from 2010 Q3 which had a median sales price of $910,000. Days on market decreased from 204 to 125 days. This may be attributed to sellers adjusting selling prices to move product instead of trying to get a high price from a fictitious buyer. Listing versus selling price was calculated at 8%.
The good news is that prices have stabilized. The “spin” is that the market is continuing to build strength and momentum. The higher end of the market with purchases of $15 million up, is especially strong and is inflating the average price figures. There remains a degree of uncertainty in the more mainstream segments of the market as reflected by the number of sales which is down from last year. This is a sharp contrast from Spring 2010 when smaller units were much more in demand and sales volume was on the rise. Entry level buyers took advantage of the market conditions and the home buyer credit.
Data from STREETeasy reports that 5,582 condominiums and 6,655 cooperative apartments sold in Manhattan in 2010. So far, month to date, 70 condominiums and 119 cooperative apartments have sold.
Although real estate here in New York City is holding firm and some tremendous opportunities exist, we are not out of the woods. The rest of the country continues to experience a struggle in regards to the housing market. According to the Standard and Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index, 20 major metropolitan areas saw a 1% slide in price. Chicago, Las Vegas, Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle, Charlotte, Miami, Tampa and Portland, Ore top the list.
The winter and overall seasonal variances will impact the market performance. An interesting fact is that it can take up to four months to close property in New York City from initial acceptance of the offer to reaching the closing table. The discrepancy of when a property actually sells versus closing would be a very interesting study. In fact, The National Association of Realtors released yesterday a report that the Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, increased 2.0 percent to 93.7 based on contracts signed in December from a downwardly revised 91.9 in November. The index is 4.2 percent below the 97.8 mark in December 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months in other markets.
Send me a message if you'd like me to email you a more detailed analysis of 2010 real estate reporting. This includes a breakdown of how new development and condos vs. co-ops performed last year.
Next month, Closing Table NYC will discuss the new agency disclosure laws that are now in effect for Manhattan.
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